In January 2022, the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission certified new redistricting maps with a three to two vote. After the vote, the new legislative maps were then sent to Secretary of State Katie Hobbs' office to be distributed among the counties. From here, voter registration rolls can be updated to include new legislative districts.
Redistricting occurs after every major census, as stipulated in the Constitution, to account for population shifts, to ensure that fairness is a part of the election process, and to make sure everybody’s voice is heard. Redistricting is not to be confused with gerrymandering, which involves unfairly redrawing districts to deliberately favor one party over another.
While necessary, redistricting can also be very controversial simply because the shape of each district can potentially determine who wins seats in the state. More importantly, redistricting may play a role in determining who controls Congress in Washington.
Further, redistricting is usually decided through the state legislature which holds power over district boundaries. Alternatively, some states, as is the case with Arizona, rely on a commission to determine new boundaries. This can be a complex task, and in Arizona, the commission must figure out how to reapportion seats to represent 7.1 million residents.
Redistricting can become a very contentious process. In Arizona, the commissioner’s independent chairwoman Erika Neuberg and Republican commissioner David Mehl leveled accusations at Democratic commissioner Shereen Lerner, accusing her of taking cues from outside Democratic groups. Lerner leveled similar charges at Mehl related to taking direction from outside Republican groups, and leveled other charges related to making false claims about the constitutionality of congressional maps, in essence making accusations of gerrymandering.
This time around the Princeton Gerrymandering Project initially awarded the submitted congressional and legislative maps a C and B, respectively, because the maps favored Republicans. However, when resubmitted in October 2021, both maps earned an A grade. Either way, political watchers predict that with the districts drawn as they are Republicans are favored to win more seats than Democrats. This could impact the political landscape for at least the next decade in the state..
So, what’s at stake? As of the November 2020 election, 4.2 million people were registered to vote in Arizona. Of this number, 1.3 million were Democrats, 1.5 million were Republicans, 38,385 were Libertarians, and 1.3 million voted independently. Using these numbers as a guide, Arizona is a purple or swing state, with contests possibly going either way.
With the redrawn districts, the change is bound to impact who gets sent to Congress. In 2011, each congressional district across the state comprised 710,244 people, but in 2020, this number has grown to 794,611 people. Moreover, voters from populous cities such as Tucson and Phoenix were blended with rural and suburban areas, among other changes.
Political watchers will not have to wait a decade to see if redistricting will impact future voting. Some experts are forecasting a Republican future for Arizona residents under the new redistricting guidelines. For example, in looking at House of Representative seats, right now Democrats have a slim lead of five seats to the Republicans’ four. The next election, however, might leave Democrats with three seats and Republicans with six because of highly competitive districts that have a vote spread of three percent.
Long-term, this redistricting can impact many of the current issues Arizonans face. With a more conservative legislature, laws related to immigration, abortion, school choice, and public school curriculum could change the political landscape dramatically.
